Will You Have Enough to Eat and Drink Next Year?
Whether or not you have enough to eat and drink next year may very well
depend on what you do between now and Labor Day. Why?
Because it will become increasingly obvious to all Americans between
Labor Day and December 31st that it=92s too
late to fix all of the computer systems critical to life as we now know
it, and that it is too late to prepare even a substantial
fraction of Americans for the risks this poses to their
well-being. Once these truth=92s sink in for even 20% of the
population, preparedness will turn increasingly aggressive.
There will not be enough food, not enough seed, not enough water to
stock American homes for even a few weeks of supply
disruptions.
It is generally agreed that the average supermarket has about 2-3 days
supply of basic food items in the store itself. Computer and
telecommunications dependent, just-in-time stocking has done away with
big warehouses behind each store. The backs of supermarkets are
essentially no more than the store=92s temporary staging areas for goods
delivered daily by truck from regional distribution centers.
How much food is available in the entire U.S. pipeline?
Processors to distribution centers to trucks to store shelves? On
May 21st, John Koskinen, Chair of the
President=92s Council on Year 2000 Conversion, reported on a meeting with
food industry representatives. He claimed, =93...our food supply
system typically includes a 60-day inventory.=94 Mike Heschel,
a VP at Kroger Co., one of the leading U.S. food retailers, told the U.S.
Senate, =93At any given moment, Kroger typically has about 35-36 days of
inventory in the system. In some categories, we have up to three
months of inventory in the system.=94 Kroger calls their inventory
=93safety stock=94 which provides a cushion in times of unusual demand such
as severe weather. They go on to emphasize, however, that
=93...unless there is widespread hoarding or excessive stockpiling,
1/1/2000 will be a routine shopping day.=94 (During winter storms in
which =93safety stock=94 cannot be delivered to the backs of stores for
several days, the shelves are bare within two days. If
trucking is down in Y2K, it is irrelevant how many days of
inventory lie in regional distribution centers. The stores will be
virtually empty in two days. If electricity is down, the store will
be closed within one dayafter the emergency generators run out of
fuel and the refrigerators/freezers die. January first should
not be a problem. It=92s the next 365 or more that I am
worried about.)
Then there=92s that warning against hoarding and stockpiling. There
is every reason to believe that there will be widespread
stockpiling this falluntil it is stopped by authoritiesbecause so many
people are completely unprepared. If stockpiling isn=92t stopped,
there will simply not be enough supplies available for the current,
daily needs of Americans! There simply is not enough food in
the nation=92s inventory for everyone to stock up for even a couple of
weeks of interruptions. There might have been if folks had prepared
gradually over the past year, but it is too late for that. If you don=92t
have the food you need by Labor Day, you may lose your right to stock up
, at any price, even if you could find enough.
How likely are we to have real food shortages? The truth is, we are
only one growing season, one harvest, away from food shortages, even
starvation, in any year. If anything interrupts the
flow of oil, gas, electricity or water to this nation=92s =93factory
farmers=94, food processors, distributors and transporters, we face food
shortages or worse. Modern agriculture depends on oiloil or gas for
fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides; oil products to run
tractors, combines and trucks. It=92s literally oil to fork.
The senior programmers are already telling us that it is too late for all
oil and gas companies and refineries to become compliant. It is too late
for several foreign oil suppliers on whom we depend. I get
telephone calls from customers who work in the oil and gas
industries. They are moving to rural farm land. They have
bought our seed and books. They know. Our government and
military know and are making contingency plans.
What Does The Military Have To Do With It?
On April 23, 1999, a full-page ad appeared in USA
Today. Headline: =93What Can You Expect At Midnight,
December 31, 1999? A National Guard That Won=92t Miss a Beat....As we
approach the year 2000, you will hear more and more about the millennium
bug...As the millennium draws closer, America=92s National Guard will meet
the challenges of Y2K with the professionalism and devotion America
expects of us. The Guard has fought fires, floods, hurricanes and
two world wars. We=92re your neighbors and friends in towns and
cities all over America. We=92ll be there to answer the call of our
country and communities; today, at midnight on December 31, 1999
and into the next millennium. Being Americans at their best.=94
And from the National Guard=92s own web page: =93So, what can American=
s
expect some of the difficulties to be? Well, they range from minor
inconveniences to major disruptions....Large segments of our nation=92s
electric power grid could fail, causing massive blackouts. Water
distribution systems could fail. Distribution of vital petroleum
and natural gas could be hampered if electronically controlled pipelines
malfunction. Even our financial well-being might be affected if
automated payroll systems malfunction, banks close and ATM cards fail to
work....All of these possibilities, and many more, might affect our
lives for months, if not years, into the
21st century. The =93Millennium Bug=
=94
is a global problem of immense dimension.=94 (Emphasis is mine.
Please note =93...for months, if not years...=94 This is a far
cry from the president=92s Council and FEMA=92s insistence that we need
prepare for the equivalent of a winter storm or a long weekend.)
A Department of Defense memorandum entitled, =93DoD Year 2000 (Y2K)
Support to Civil Authorities=94, addressed to the Chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff and virtually all of the Defense agencies and heads, and
signed by the Department=92s Y2K point man, John Hamre, defines the Y2K
transition period as =931 September 1999 through 31 March 2000=94
and the Department=92s response priorities during that
time. It notes DoD=92s recognition that Y2K responses will be unique:
=93.... past DoD responses typically have been applied to localized
acute situations, most of which have not been simultaneous. By
contrast the Y2K problem has the potential to involve a large number of
events that occur over broad geographic areas, within a short time
frame.=94 What will its priorities be during the Y2K transition?
Priority 1 National security issues. Among the
assignments that would take priority to Y2K responses are ongoing or
imminent military and intelligence operations, conduct of nuclear command
and control, support to the National Command Authority and maintenance of
Defense and commercial infrastructures essential to support these
missions.
Priority 2 speaks to resource allocation, including =93...the
Reserve Components....Responses to requests for consumable or
irrecoverable resources in this category must be approved by the
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff or his designated representative.=94
Priority 3 =93Maintenance of domestic public health and
safety. Such activities may include ..Maintenance of emergency services
(e.g., fire, ambulance, police, hospitals, and related
communications)...Maintenance of air traffic, rail, port, and ship
navigation systems (e.g. Air Traffic Control System....Food
distribution...Support to public information dissemination (press,
television, and radio).=94
Priority 4 =93Maintenance of the economy and the Nation=92s quality o=
f
life. These activities include, for example: Support to other
Federal Agencies...Support to local mass transit systems..=94.In case of
=93multiple, systemic or seemingly equal priority requests=94 from FEMA and
the State Department for domestic or foreign disaster assistance ,
decisions will be made by the Secretary of Defense...
It closes with: =93This policy memo is the first in a series designed
to ensure the Department=92s ability to effectively respond to the many and
varied demands that may be placed upon it during the Y2K date transition
period. I solicit your active and continuous support as we prepare
to meet these potential challenges.=94
Well, domestic public health and safety, including food distribution,
made it to Priority 3. I expect water falls under this priority,
too. We can only live without water for 3 days. Water, and
waste water treatment, are two of the scariest , most unaccounted for
systems in the Y2K readiness puzzle. (As I wrote this, a customer called.
In his city of Van Nuys, California, 4 million gallons of raw sewage has
just flowed into Balboa Park through a manhole cover. Cause?
The water reclamation plant was conducting a Y2K test. It
failed. They are using tanker trucks and big vacuums to suck up the
sewage. I have just confirmed that his story is true. Sadly,
it is likely a mere hint of things to come.)
Current survey data, and the shocking lack of data and regulatory
oversight, point to disruptions in safe drinking water and defective
waste treatment for many communities even if there is electricity
available to pump it! One estimate is that 30 million
Americans will be without water in Y2K! Given that you can only
live for 3 days without water, please make an alternative water
supply your top priority. If there are more water and other
problems than a mobilized National Guard can respond to, you will
essentially be on your own. You=92ll need a bare minimum of one
gallon a day for each member of your family. How many days you may
need it for is entirely unknown. Personally, I would not be without
at least 3 weeks worth per person. We are planning for much longer
in our home.
Just after Labor Day, many more Americans will begin to learn the truth
about our vulnerabilities from some key trigger event(s), from stories
that surface from businesses testing faulty =93repaired=94 systems, from
contingency plans being discussed in state capitals, or from the minutes
of meetings at utility companies in communities across America.
Once they do, the =93dominoes thinking=94 by the general public will begin i=
n
earnest. It will be like assembling a gigantic, 1500-piece jigsaw
puzzle. At first, it will be very slow going. The straight,
outer edges of the puzzle will be assembled, and the magnitude of the
challenge will begin to sink in. Then a few pieces will be found
that fit together correctly. Then more, until patterns begin to
emerge, key areas of the puzzle are assembled, and their
interrelationships with other areas become more clear. Soon it=92s
easy to see the big picture. Soon. But it will be too late
for them to prepare. The inevitable public panic, ensured by the
poor handling of the truth by our =93leaders=94, will begin. Runs on
banks and stores may, to maintain the peace and day-to-day supplies, have
to be controlled. Life is likely to be very different this fall and
winter from anything we are used to. God bless us all.
As for the future of The Ark Institute, the availability of our
Non-hybrid Seed Survival Packages, books, and free educational
publications will be in as much jeopardy for Y2K disruptions as any other
prepared business, family, institution or individual in the
U.S. We have upgraded or replaced computers and software, and have
an alternative electric supply, but we have no real control over book
publishers, paper and ink production, miscellaneous vendors, the U.S.
Postal Service, UPS, gasoline supplies, etc. Come winter and spring
of the year 2000, I expect we will either be insanely busy getting our
non-hybrid seed and books out to the growing number of distressed
families and communities, OR our work will be so interrupted by failed
infrastructure and services that we are unable to respond, in a timely
manner, to requests for help. We expect we will have plenty
of non-hybrid seedvegetables, corns and wheat available. Getting it
to those who need it may be the difficult part.
We are preparing for the worst, as the risks of not preparing or
under-preparing are simply too high, in our view. If difficult
times emerge, The Ark Institute will shift to contingency plans and
=93survival mode=94 as will thousands of businesses and prepared
Americansuntil we get to =93the other side=94 of this time of
troubles. Please rest assured that we will be trying, despite the
challenges, to be available to all of our customersby computer, telephone
and traditional mailto fulfill our mission of disseminating educational
materials and non-hybrid seeds for self-sufficiency. Please note
that I have informed our staff that this may require hand addressed
mailings to all of our customers. We expect the Post Office
computer systems to have difficulties, perhaps preventing the forwarding
of mail. If you expect to change your address in the next few
months, let us know if/where you want us to send our Updates or other
correspondence. Please note that The Ark Institute does
not share, sell, or rent its mailing list to anyone, so
your location information will remain confidential with us. Period.
One early impact of the impending events on the Institute will likely be
on my free gardening and food preservation seminars. I expect I will
not be doing any after December of this year unless Y2K effects
are unexpectedly minor, and until I judge it safe to travel again.
In fact, I could foresee a few scenarios that would force me to give up
doing seminars as soon as October of 1999.. I will continue to do
as many of these as I can this summer, and will post the latest series at
the bottom of this letter. Please take advantage of them now, if
you can. They will all continue to be FREE for the remainder of
this year. Encourage as many in your community to attend as you
can, as the more knowledgeable your neighbors and friends are, the better
your entire community will do in a moderate or worst case Y2K
scenario.
Are You Ready?
If anything in the year 2000 disrupts or prevents the
timely planting of crops for seed--seed to grow our
food for 2001-- then there will be global food shortages,
perhaps worse, in the year 2001. Virtually no one will have stored food
for two years. Local communities need to have the non-hybrid seed
and know-how to raise their food locally. Prepared individuals and
families will be resources to their communities.
The Ark Institute is available to you now, to help you prepare
before the great panic begins. We have excellent supplies of
our Non-hybrid Seed Survival Packagesall new, fresh seed this
season. It will store 3-5 years or more! Details are
included. It is excellent seed stock that you will be able to
depend on next year and not only feed your family and friends, but save
the seed for the year 2001. Non-hybrid vegetable seed is your
only intermediate and long-term food security solution. You
can only store so much food, and then you must find more. If a
moderate to worst case scenario is realizedand 10% of computer experts
believe it will be a worst case, 45% a moderate casethen you
must have the means to continue to feed yourself and your family,
perhaps year after year.
We have added important new self-reliance books to our list,
including a package of three excellent books on food preservation.
Please, learn how to do these things this year and become a resource for
others next year. We=92ll help you all we can. Greater
self-reliance will be a blessing for so many. You can play an
important role in that. Please click through to the Institute's web
site at:
http://www.arkinstitute.com
Finally, I see our seeds as being similar to the =93loaves and fishes=94 of=
the Bible. A mere handful of seeds can be =93miraculously=
transformed=94, enabling you to feed many, many people. The seeds=
will multiply, and you can give them away. Small miracles. Do=
that! Become an important resource, a botanical ark for your=
community in the year(s) ahead. We have plenty of fresh seed=
now. We are growing the same seed packages in Ark=92s gardens right=
now, and the plants are beautiful! We are already harvesting=
preserving our snow peas for next year. We are currently shipping our=
seed packages and books the same day we receive your order. =
This will not be the case once the panic begins. Please, if you are=
not prepared as well as you would like to be, now is the time. =
Thank you, and may God bless you in the challenging times ahead......Geri=
Guidetti
Geri=92s Upcoming SeminarsMore to be Announced this Summer!
June 26 & 27, Hara Arena, Dayton, Ohio. Y2K Preparedness=
Expo. Geri will speak for one hour, at 12 Noon on both Saturday=
and Sunday. Free lectures by preparedness experts all day, 9-5. =
Call 888-850-9066 for more details.
July 6 & 7, The Hyatt Regency Columbus, 350 North High Street,=
Columbus, OH This will be a FREE, multi-hour, intensive=
presentation on Survival Food Gardening and Preservation by Geri Guidetti,=
and then Food Storage by expert Jim Rhoades from PermaPak Foods. To=
assure that we will have a room large enough to seat all who want to=
attend, you must register by calling 888-320-3663.
July 15 & 16, The Westin Hotel, 50 South Capital Ave.,=
Indianapolis, IN This will be the same as the July 6 & 7=
seminar, above. Again, please register to assure we will have=
reserved a room and seats enough to fit the crowd. This has been a=
very popular seminar. Call toll free: 888-320-3663.
September 18 & 19, in Wisconsin Dells, WI. Geri Guidetti will=
make an hour-long presentation =93Terminator Seeds: Their Threat to Global=
Food Supply=94at the Wisconsin Natural Foods Associates=
(WNFA)Convention. I am scheduled to speak on Sunday at 8:10=
A.M.! For more information, contact WNFA at 1102 S.=
89th Street, West Allis, WI=
53214-2823 414-774-8995
December 4 & 5, Y2K Preparedness Expo, Cincinnati, Ohio. =
More details will be posted at The Ark Institute=92s Web site on this=
one. Or write to Ark for details. Given the uncertainties of life at this=
late date, I would not recommend that you save all of your shopping for=
preparedness items for this Expo.